Northern Rockies Storm Brings Hope For Montana Fire Relief

We were already seeing an improvement in air quality from the choking fire smoke of the past few days Wednesday morning.

But will the incoming storm moving into the Northern Rockies over the next three days put an end to the fires themselves?

It is certainly looking that way, although it will all depend on the amount of rain that falls, and whether much of that moisture hits more of the state, and not just the mountains of Western Montana. If that happens, it could end the "above normal" fire risk forecasters had worried about.

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What does it take to "end" the Montana fire season?

A "season-ending event" varies a lot in the Northern Rockies, and can be affected by things like precipitation and colder temperatures. However, storms in the first part of September might not be enough to completely snuff the fire season, especially if temperatures rebound, if there is prolonged drought and a lack of consistent showers into early October.

Generally, the Forest Service has defined a season-ending event as a storm with as little as 1/2 of rain over a three-day event.

The forecast for this system qualifies

The first significant rain, and snow, of the fall is still expected to move into the Northern Rockies today, primarily in Western Montana, prompting warnings of potential heavy runoff, slides, and dangers to hikers and hunters in the high country. NWS issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Thursday night through Friday morning for elevations above 6,500 feet.

National Weather Service forecasters are expecting showers through the afternoon, and then heavier rain tonight, and again on Thursday. Those storms could produce up to an inch of rainfall, and perhaps up to 2 inches over the higher terrain on the Northern Divide, such as Glacier National Park and the Bob Marshall Wilderness Area. Several inches of snow are also possible above 6000 feet.

Enough rain?

Forecasters peg the chance of more than half an inch of rain, the threshold for fire season, at 80%. However, the precipitation is expected to fall off before Saturday.

However, the NWS forecast office in Great Falls is only expecting showers, and possible thunderstorms east of the Divide, before dry, warm weather returns for the weekend.

The Weather Service says people near burn scars should be especially watchful for runoff that could lead to slides.